Seven Technology Predictions for 2010
Acer wants to be the first to sell a Chrome OS Netbook
2010 will undoubtedly be a year of technology. In 2009, Twitter revolutionized the way we get news, it brought us closer to those who were a part of the news, almost making traditional media irrelevant. I don’t know who (or what) will be the Twitter of 2010, but below are a few predictions for the coming year.
Google’s Chrome Netbook OS will be a hit. Their OS will mostly be dependent on a Google Account. A Google Account opens up their full Google Apps suite, which includes email, calendar, word processing, and MS Office like functions. Google’s renditions of their current OS have been well received by the “blogosphere” especially it’s ability to fit on a 1GB flash drive. An OS that small is perfect for Netbooks and tablet PCs. The smaller footprint also gives the user more capabilities. A key part of the Chrome OS will be the Chrome brower (my browser of choice) and one that is noted for its speed and security. Google rarely has missteps and I don’t foresee that Chrome OS will be one of them.
Notion Ink's Adam Tablet is sleek, and has an incredible Pixel Qi screen
Tablet PCs will dethrone the Kindle and the Nook – Recently, Barnes and Noble stated that they expected to ship 60k Nook handsets this year. Amazon stated that the Kindle was the largest gift ever sold this holiday season. Both devices are great at one thing – reading e-books. But who will be satisfied with a $250 E-reader, when a full fledged tablet PC can be had for $300? Many tablets on their way are going to be “subsidized” devices with 3G services. They will be capable of reading B&N e-books, Amazon e-books, and .pdf/.txt/.doc documents. Tablet PCs can offer the reading package side by side with Web-browsing, video and music playback, and video output to HDTVs/Monitors, or even use it as a full fledge PC when docked.
The DROID could be as good as it gets in 2010
There will be no great Smartphone leaps in 2010 – Smartphones (iPhone/BlackBerry/Android/Windows Mobile devices) are in a bit of a rut. As telecom providers are rushing to roll out 4G/LTE (long term evolution) networks, there is not too much a cellular phone can do in the future that it cannot now. In my mind, the most limiting factor for mobile phones is bandwidth. Already they can be hacked to provide Wireless Access Points, use Google Voice, and be tethered to provide your computer w/ access. We already have Multi-Touch, OLED, 5MP, and other capabilities. Improved touchscreen interactions, standardizing tethering and VoIP will all be nice, but these are merely hacks, not innovations.
USB 2.0 Left, 3.0 Right
USB 3.0 will not revolutionize anything (at least in 2010) – USB 3.0 is a great improvement. Offering transmission speeds of up to 480Mbps, it is certainly faster than USB 3.0, but until it is actually adopted, it is a useless advancement. USB 3.0 can be a revolution for displays, hi-fi audio, external hard drives, and hardwired network transmissions. All of these require a high amount of bandwidth. There is talk of USB 3.0 becoming the standard for every digital connection – but until it is adopted it is merely just another “Betamax.” The most expensive motherboards commercially available now do not have USB 3.0 ports, and until they ship in every PC and every peripheral, USB 3.0 will not find acceptance and relevance.
Location information (and location based services) will be extremely important in 2010 – Cell tower triangulation, GPS, and RFID (not to mention credit card records) are creating an inordinate amount of information pertaining to people’s habits, their routes, and who is purchasing what, where. Recently it has come to light that Sprint has shared over 8 M records with authorities – the amount of digital information on every person is growing daily, and privacy vs law enforcement, military, and anti-terror issues will rise to the surface of public opinion, and quickly. Whether Sprint is right or wrong to release that information depends on whomever you ask – I’m sure the criminals in jail would disagree with it, yet I bet district attorneys and law enforcement officials enjoyed it (for more on the Sprint issue here). Check out SenseNetworks here for info on a locational data market leader.
Google's Android is powering this season's hottest cellphone: the Motorola DROID
2010, open source will have an impact on the consumer – Sun Microsystems’ OpenOffice.org project is an incredibly powerful desktop tool. It has become part of the suite of apps that I personally install on every machine I use. Why would I spend $100+ on bloated software (I’m looking at you Office 2007) when Sun offers the same capabilities in a 300MB download? In my opinion, this software is fully functional, and I suggest it to anyone I know in need of a desktop publishing solution. In addition, Google’s Android OS, an open source mobile phone (and PMP) operating system is going to touch a large number of consumers, and be an OS of choice for many tech manufacturers. Open source Linux servers have been supporting consumers for years, but in 2010 I foresee OpenOffice.org and Android reaching out and touching the consumer (and them knowing it).
Do you really want to wear these everytime you watch TV?
3D HDTV/3D in the house will not take off – Do you really want to wear glasses every time you decide watch TV or a new movie? I know I don’t, and I don’t think the majority of America does either. In my mind 3D has always been a gimmick – something for amusement park rides – not a really tenable technology. The advent of HD footage has gotten people used to clear, pristine images, 3D is neither of these. After recently watching Avatar in Digital 3D, after 2 hours and 40 minutes all I had was a headache, a desire for a refund, and no clue as to why anyone would film anything in 3D. In my mind, I don’t think this technology is ready for full scale adoption, I’ll probably avoid 3D until we have holographic projectors (maybe by the end of 2020!)
So what do you guys think of my predictions? Do you have any of your own? Please comment on mine, and leave your own!
Thanks!
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Bob, just and end of year-beginning of year comment: Thanks for CTOvision.com! I am neither a CTO or even much of a techie any more, but I always find something of interest in your posts. Thanks for bringing both expertise and passion to this area.
3D in theaters has come into it's own. Avatar was amazing. No headache here. And it proves that you can have High def, clear, Sharp
and 3D in one package. You should do some research on Home 3D tech. They have added a spec to the Blu-ray standard to handle 3D (1080p24/30/60 3D) Sony is bringing 3D to every PS3 game in 2010. And with every new LCD based TV supporting a min of 120Hz 3D is in reach. They need to make it passive like in the theaters so I don't have to plug something into my TV to sync the glasses. I actually held off buying a new HD TV to see how things would pan out this year.
Your USB 3.0 section has what I hope are typos. USB 3.0 has data rates up to 5.0 Gb/sec and the ASUS P7P55D has USB 3.0 support and was available in October 2009. That aside I agree it will take until Q4 2010 to see mainstream adoption of USB 3.0.
My prediction for 2010 is Augmented Reality or 6th sense as some call it. There are several cool apps for the iPhone that use the camera to
overlay live data about your surrounds. Yelps iPhone app. allows you to hold your phone up to the front of a restaurant and overlay reviews. In 2010 this will move from the cool to the really useful. Wondering what the prices are around town on that USB 3.0 motherboard your looking at? Hold your cellphone camera up to it and find out.
Steve,
Thanks for your comments, those are indeed egregious USB 3.0 typos. I said most expensive motherboards – only Asus and Gigabyte currently have USB 3.0 motherboards and most of those are not that powerful. They each have one which uses the LGA 1366 socket and could be considered top of the line, but the rest are somewhat crippled. Traditionally it is the top of the line motherboards from companies like Asus, EVGA, MSI, XFX, and Intel that premiere technology, so it is somewhat alarming that these brands are not using USB 3.0. I think USB 3.0 is a great standard and will go a long way towards simplifying input/output interfaces, but at the time being it is simply not being used.
I don't think 3D will migrate to the home the way that many people are predicting, that is my opinion. Studies have stated that 50% of all homes in the US have HDTVs already. The prices for HDTVs have dropped significantly, but I doubt most of those people are willing to spend $500 + on a new HDTV, just for 3D. Personally I'd rather watch movies and TV in HD rather than 3D, and I have a feeling that I am not alone. I did think the CGI and motion caption integration were well done in Avatar, but the story and dialog were abysmal. The story stole much from Fern Gully and Pocahontas, to ill-effect. In addition, a movie preaching against excess and waste that costs $300M is just laughable in my mind.
I agree, augmented reality is certainly a powerful concept, but I think it suffers from the same bandwidth restrictions imposed by current networks/systems. Also, is taking a picture necessarily easier than just typing into froogle or shopzilla, before you leave the home? I know for me, I don't ever expect to find deals on tech items in brick and mortar stores, and only when I am assured of them would I venture out to buy them. I think that when 4G networks with real mobile broadband and more powerful cellphones hit us, augmented reality will make a huge impact, but until then it has to wait for other technologies to grow to meet it.
“I'd rather watch movies and TV in HD rather than 3D”
The technology allows you to watch HD in 3D.
“is taking a picture necessarily easier than just typing into froogle or shopzilla, before you leave the home?”
You don't have to take a picture. It overlays the data over the live camera view.
“Google’s Chrome Netbook OS will be a hit.” I'm sorry is not even close to accurate. I think like the Cloud people are beginning to to see big issues. Right not Google's tools are immature and lacking in a lot of areas. Their collaboration is very good for simple stuff. Software integration with legacy has been very problematic. Software delivery and support are going to be their weakness and from our company is already showing that. We have been very dissapointed in the support and delivery or production ready work. Eventually yes, but right now I'm personally leary of any company that relies on the infrastructure and is at the mercy of other companies. Loss connection – Google is down…that's a BIG issues for mobile field sales and work force.
“Google’s Chrome Netbook OS will be a hit.” I'm sorry is not even close to accurate. I think like the Cloud people are beginning to to see big issues. Right not Google's tools are immature and lacking in a lot of areas. Their collaboration is very good for simple stuff. Software integration with legacy has been very problematic. Software delivery and support are going to be their weakness and from our company is already showing that. We have been very dissapointed in the support and delivery or production ready work. Eventually yes, but right now I'm personally leary of any company that relies on the infrastructure and is at the mercy of other companies. Loss connection – Google is down…that's a BIG issues for mobile field sales and work force.