I’ve been working with Apache Hadoop in my lab, spending much of that with CDH3 (the Cloudera Distribution including Apache Hadoop). As part of my examination of the best way to move from test/evaluation/prototyping to production systems I’ve been examining cloud-based cluster capabilities.  Crucial Point CTO Bob Gourley and I recently set up clusters in Amazon EC2 and Rackspace and were both impressed with the ability to get powerful systems up and running fast for very low cost.

With this post I’ll share some of the tips and techniques used to get these clusters up and running. These tips flow from the guide provided by Cloudera (see link at end of this post) but include a few other important tips that will help get you operational fast. I also provide more explanatory context to help you understand more what is going on as you execute these instructions. My only assumption here is that you have an understanding of the basic Linux command-line environment and have access to systems (perhaps in your environment or, like we did, at Amazon or Rackspace). Please note that this particular guide is written for 64-bit Redhat-flavored systems (CentOS/Fedora/ect…), and will need to be tailored for other OSs. Also note that we did things this way because we want to learn and to teach and thought many of you would like to see what is going on here as well. But there are actually better/faster ways than this. You can download configuration management systems that let you plan, start, manage and operate clusters very smartly using great GUIs and then manage them over the lifecycle of a production environment (see for example, the free Cloudera Manager). We will provide more on tools like that in the future. But now we want to show you how to stand up your environment using CDH3 by use of the command line. This is the fun way. We will walk you through the enterprise way in the near term.

Our first step flows from an understanding that Hadoop utilizes a lot of Java, and for that, you want to be sure that you are using the Sun/Oracle version.  This ensures that any problems you come across aren’t in the Java implementation itself.

Bring up the Linux system you wish to install CDH/Hadoop on and run the commands below inside of the command prompt.  This will return a list of installed packages called “OpenJDK“.  OpenJDK is an open-source implementation of Java that we will need to remove.

rpm -qa | grep openjdk

If that returns a list of openjdk packages, you need to remove them before heading further.  This command below will remove anything in yum which starts with “java”, and will remove openJDK from the system.  We want to do this because the Sun/Oracle Java is much more stable and will ensure that all required features are present in Java.

yum remove java*

Once the packages have been removed, run the following commands in order to download and install the Sun/Oracle Java environs.

For 64-bit versions:

wget http://download.oracle.com/otn-pub/java/jdk/7u2-b13/jdk-7u2-linux-x64.rpm

Now we download and install the Java Runtime Environment.

For 64-bit versions:

wget http://download.oracle.com/otn-pub/java/jdk/7u2-b13/jre-7u2-linux-x64.rpm

Now that we have the packages downloaded, it is time to install them.  Use the Redhat package manager (rpm) to install these files with the commands below.

rpm -i jre-7u2-linux-x64.rpm
rpm -i jdk-7u2-linux-x64.rpm

At this point we are ready to start downloading the Cloudera Distribution including Apache Hadoop (CDH).  Redhat-flavor linux users of later distributions (Fedora 12+, latest versions of CentOS) can safely use the Redhat/CentOS 6 repositories from cloudera to install hadoop. If you are running later versions of those flavors, use the CentOS 5 repo.

For Latest Versions:  http://archive.cloudera.com/redhat/6/x86_64/cdh/cloudera-cdh3.repo

For Legacy Versions: http://archive.cloudera.com/redhat/cdh/cloudera-cdh3.repo

You may notice that this is a repo file — it’ll add a repository to your package manager and help you keep your CDH software up to date. Simply add it to the yum repository like this (as root):

cd /etc/yum.repos.d/
wget http://archive.cloudera.com/redhat/6/x86_64/cdh/cloudera-cdh3.repo

Then update your package information from the repo with yum.

yum update

We use the repositories because it’s easier to keep CDH up-to-date with the package manager rather than building from source every time there is an update.  Maintenance and setup are easier, and it’s easier to reinstall should we need to do that.  Adding the repositories also allows you to install additional packages with yum with a few simple commands, rather than having to search for, then download and install any additional software add-ons for your Hadoop ecosystem.

Now you should be ready for the next step — downloading and installing Cloudera’s Hadoop. Do this with yum by using the following commands:

yum install hadoop-0.20

This will install the base of Hadoop and allow you to install the other packages that Hadoop requires to operate — namely the jobtracker, tasktracker, namenode, and datanode. All of those trackers and nodes are required in order to operate a Hadoop cluster. Choose which ones this machine will run, or install all of them at once if you are running in “pseudo-distributed mode”. Pseudo-distributed mode treats one computer as if it is an entire cluster, and is great for testing out prototype jobs or performing development on.

to install the packages, simply follow this syntax:

yum install hadoop-0.20-[NAME OF THE PACKAGE]

If you want to run hadoop just on one node, install all of the packages, then use the following configuration for Hadoop in the /etc/hadoop-0.20/conf folder: http://hadoop.apache.org/common/docs/r0.20.2/quickstart.html#PseudoDistributed

Below is a simple bash script for pseudo-distributed installs of CDH.  This script will start the Hadoop services for you:

#!/bin/bash
service hadoop-0.20-datanode start
service hadoop-0.20-jobtracker start
service hadoop-0.20-namenode start
service hadoop-0.20-tasktracker start

Copy and paste that code into a file named “start-hadoop”, save it, and mark the file executable with the chmod command:

chmod +x start-hadoop

Then run it to see if everything starts up fine with:

./start-hadoop

If you did everything well, then you should be able to perform the following actions:

hadoop fs -copyFromLocal [filename] [filename in hdfs]

hadoop fs -cat [filename in hdfs]

Where the names in brackets are the names of a file you wish to import and then display in HDFS (Hadoop distributed file system).  If you weren’t able to get that started fine, then you may need to repeat one of the steps or make sure you installed all the components you needed.

If you have any questions or if you’ve found an error in this Tutorial, please let me know on Twitter (@Crypt0s).

A full documentation including steps to install on Debian-based systems can be found at Cloudera’s website.

Note: Keep checking CTOvision.com for more Hadoop updates on software for Hadoop like Whirr. Whirr is another great capability, enabling the fast standup of cloud clusters by use of a simple properties file you update with your cloud provider info. We also have posts coming on the use of Cloudera’s Manager. Also, as previously mentioned, if you would like fast tips to standing up cloud-based servers to start these Hadoop Clusters on, see our Quickstart guides to Amazon and Rackspace servers.

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Amazon didn’t invent cloud computing, but they deserve lots of credit for transforming the business model for providing cloud services through elastic computing (for some history see Jeff Bezos’ Risky Bet from Businessweek Nov 2006). They have pushed the economics of cloud computing to be so efficient they are able to offer a 12 months worth of initial compute for free. This is a great opportunity to learn their interface and to test how their computing capabilities might serve your needs.

We have been using Amazon servers for a variety of purposes over the years and have just finished fielding a CDH3 cluster standup there and thought it would be a good time to capture some quickstart lessons to help you get started with your own systems (we have a similar post for Rackspace cloud servers here).

So, fire up your web browser and follow along and we will have you online with your own cloud-based, scalable, elastic, free system, in minutes:

Step one: Create your login:

• Start at the URL http://aws.amazon.com  (AWS stands for Amazon Web Services).
• Click the big yellow button that reads “Get Started with a Free AWS Account”
• You may sign in with an existing Amazon.com account or sign in as a new user.
• You will need to enter your billing address and credit card information (Amazon promises not to charge you unless your usage exceeds the free usage tiers). They also need a phone number. Then hit “create account” Amazon will call your phone with a pin that you will need to complete your registration. Now you can use that pin to finalize verification of your account.

You can now sign into AWS anytime from any browser.  Now sign in and create your first virtual server.

Step Two: Stand up your server:

• If you are not already at the AWS Management Console navigate there by selecting it from the link at the top right of the page or click here: http://aws.amazon.com/console
• You are now looking at a page with a menu bar like the one below:

• Select the tab for EC2. Take a moment to orient yourself to the EC2 dashboard.
• To launch your virtual server, which Amazon calls an “instance”, click the “launch Instance” button.
• You now need to pick the operating system and configuration you want. You do this by selecting an AMI (Amazon Machine Instance), which is a pre-set package based around the OS you want. You will want to pick one that is part of the free package, but scroll through the options so you see what is available for future use. I recommend starting with the one that should be on the top, the Basic 32-bit Amazon Linux AMI. Hit the select button.
• You will now be presented with other configuration options. Instance Type is important. To take advantage of the free offer from Amazon this will need to be “Micro (t1.micro, 613 MB)” so select that one to begin with.  But note that you also have other high end choices.
• A this stage leave “availability zone” as no preference. When you are building production systems this will be important to you, but not now.
• Select “continue” for the next page of the instance wizard. You may use defaults for “Advanced Instance Options” and on the next page after you hit “Continue” you can use defaults for key and value tags. Hit “continue” again and you should be at the “Create Key Pair” wizard page.
• Your key pair will be used to allow you to remotely log into your server. Select “create a new pair”
• Enter a key name, something simple like “myfirstkey”. Then click the button that says “create and download your key pair”
• Save the file in a place you will remember. You will need it!
• After you hit continue you will be presented with options to configure your firewall. If you move to fast on this screen you can block yourself out of your instance, so configure this correctly.

When you have gone through all the above, click “Continue.”  Then review all your settings and click “Launch”.

Your server is now being built. It will be up in a minute and you will see its status reflected in your dashboard.

Now, how do you connect to this new server?

How you connect is a matter of personal choice. I use the old fashioned terminal window and SSH. You can bring one up on most any modern computer. You will need a little info before connecting. You will need to remember where you put the key you downloaded. You will also need to know the Public DNS pointer that Amazon created. You can find that in the “instances” window of EC2. It will look something like “ec2-50-16-52-139.compute-1.amazonaws.com”

From the terminal window:

• Navigate to the location where you stored your keypair. You need to make sure it has the right permissions so that you can use it, Amazon can accept it, and others will have a harder time seeing it.  Enter this in your terminal window:

sudo chmod 400 myfirstkey.pem

• Now you can log into your server using SSH and your keypair. You will log in as ec2-user with the public DNS name amazon gave you. your command will look something like:

sudo ssh -i myfirstkey.pem -l ec2-user ec2-50-16-52-139.compute-1.amazonaws.com

You should get feedback from that command that says something like:

The authenticity of host ‘ec2-50-17-121-192.compute-1.amazonaws.com (50.17.121.192)’ can’t be established.
RSA key fingerprint is 69:eb:66:d9:34:18:1a:8a:03:1b:68:f8:7c:12:e6:c8.
Are you sure you want to continue connecting (yes/no)?

Type “yes” and you are in business. You are now logged into the server and can execute any commands you could on any other server you own.

More about AWS Free Usage (from the AWS site):

To help new AWS customers get started in the cloud, AWS is introducing a free usage tier. New AWS customers will be able to run a free Amazon EC2 Micro Instance for a year, while also leveraging a free usage tier for Amazon S3, Amazon Elastic Block Store, Amazon Elastic Load Balancing, and AWS data transfer. AWS’s free usage tier can be used for anything you want to run in the cloud: launch new applications, test existing applications in the cloud, or simply gain hands-on experience with AWS.

AWS Free Usage Tier (Per Month):

• 750 hours of Amazon EC2 Linux Micro Instance usage (613 MB of memory and 32-bit and 64-bit platform support) – enough hours to run continuously each month*
• 750 hours of an Elastic Load Balancer plus 15 GB data processing*
• 10 GB of Amazon Elastic Block Storage, plus 1 million I/Os and 1 GB of snapshot storage*
• 5 GB of Amazon S3 standard storage, 20,000 Get Requests, and 2,000 Put Requests*
• 15 GB of bandwidth out aggregated across all AWS services*
• 25 Amazon SimpleDB Machine Hours and 1 GB of Storage**
• 100,000 Requests of Amazon Simple Queue Service**
• 100,000 Requests, 100,000 HTTP notifications and 1,000 email notifications for Amazon Simple Notification Service**
• 10 Amazon Cloudwatch metrics, 10 alarms, and 1,000,000 API requests**

We hope the above is enough to get you started.  We have a post coming soon on how to do the same thing with Rackspace. We are also preparing one on how to launch a Cloudera CDH3 Hadoop Cluster using cloud capabilities. More on all that soon!

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The Roku brings Streaming Video Directly to your Living Room

On a whim, I recently picked up a Roku XD player from Woot.com. The Roku allows you to tap into a lot of the video going around on the “interwebs” and watch it on your HDTV of choice. The Roku is one of the devices that so-called “cord-cutters” use to keep themselves entertained. After a few weeks with it (coupled with subscriptions to Amazon Prime and Netflix Instant Video) I’ve got a few thoughts on it.

Streaming Video and the Roku – Is it all it’s cracked up to be?

When playing around with my Roku player, I used Amazon VOD, Cracklin, Netflix Instant and played around with a few others. None of the interfaces were great – they didn’t really allow for good search/discovery, but I’d have to say the Netflix app offered the best UX. Cracklin’ is a video offering that tortures you with endless commercials, but rewards you with free movies and TV. However, I stuck to Amazon VOD and Netflix myself. Roku does a really good job bringing video to your HDTV (especially the HD streams). I have a large (73″) TV, but all of the HD streams looked crisp and clear. The Facebook App only allows you to look at videos and pictures – but I imagine it that will change in the future.

There are various sports, news, music (think Pandora), kids and games applications that can all be added to your Roku. Roku’s own news applications allows you to plug into live feeds and check out all sorts of episodic news shows. The Roku offers a variety of sports channels with subscription services that are great for the out of market viewer.

Pros of Roku:

• Great Price (should be able to find one for $50ish)
• Very configurable – choose your homescreen “channels”
• Easy to understand
• Great streaming for top 3 content providers (Amazon/Hulu+/Netflix)
• Integrates well with other A/V devices

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The Kindle Fire outsold all expectations

Yesterday, I read a great article over at GigaOM about how the Kindle Fire has become “The Next Big Haven for Developers.” (Check it out here). Apparently, Amazon’s Appstore (with 1-click purchasing) as well as the number of Kindle Fire devices sold (said to be over 5M), have made the Kindle Fire the targeted device of choice for Android development. I think this is great news, long has the 7″ form factor been ignored, and Android been the “ugly sister” of development. Despite the 600k+ activations a day, many Android users are the “value” type. They don’t wish to spend money on apps, and thus, do not. However, Amazon’s Appstore requires a credit card to download anything (free or not) so users find themselves buying a little more.

As an owner of a Samsung Galaxy Tab, I could not be happier about this. It is high time that the 7″ market gets some love. The sales of the Kindle Fire show that the public wants Android Tablets – they just want them to be affordable. The $200 price mark was crushed by the $99 HP Touchpad (which sold out ridiculously quickly) and Amazon is making tablets affordable. I believe the success of the Kindle Fire will (pun intended) light a fire under quite a few device manufacturers.

Amazon is succeeding in their second manufacturing foray

What are the other repercussions of the success of the Amazon Fire? I would foresee that they get a big jump in Amazon Prime users. I’ve been using Amazon Prime Instant Video on my Roku for the past two weeks and have been quite impressed with the service. It’s rumored that Amazon will be releasing a 10″ tablet in the future. Whether or not they know it, the rest of the tablet manufacturers have been put on notice – Amazon will be a player in this market. I expect that the Kindle Fire will continue to sell through the holiday season, and might even end up with 10M sales by the end of the year.

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Here at CTOVision, we analyze disruptive technologies and follow trends happening in the government, enterprise, and consumer technology space.  Yesterday I was reading reading about Google’s new offering of a music service through the Android Market.  I found it interesting that Google would do this, since they are so far behind in the game relative to Apple’s iTunes and Amazon’s music services.  Then I started thinking about what this meant for consumers.  Here is what I have come up with.

Technology services 5-10 years ago were very sparse and fragmented, especially when you think about Windows vs. the Mac OS.  You either had one or the other.  Then there were a few years where iPods blew up, and Mac brought out OSX, and there was a little more cooperation, but it was still difficult to seamlessly work between the separate devices.  The last few years have been characterized, however, by a largely connected user experience, where almost any program is available for any OS and device.  Windows works on Macs, iTunes is used on PCs, and when we talk mobile, most software is now written for both the Android Market and the App Store.

What I see coming in the next few years is another divergence of the systems, and a move toward consumers picking a team, and modeling their entire technological life around it.  There will be three teams: Apple, Google, and Amazon.  These are the winners.  I will discuss the losers a little later.  So here is the theory.  Let’s start by looking at the offerings of each.

Apple: OSX and iOS, iPod, Macbook series, iPhone, iTunes (music, movies, books), iCloud, iPad, the App Store, Apple TV, Ping, and maybe actual TVs next year.  Oh, and Siri, the potential Google threat.

Google: Android OS (offered on a plethora of phones and tablets), search, Android Market (books, apps, movies, and now music), cloud services, Google +, Google TV, Chrome, Google Docs, Google Maps, and a recent acquisition of Motorola to help them make their own devices.

Amazon:  Movies, music, TV, Books, shopping, cloud, Kindles.

So as you can see, Apple and Google, are essentially offering nearly the exact same products, but they compete directly with each other.  Amazon is trying to get into the space, and has the most potential of any company to do so. The Kindle is still wildly popular and the Kindle Fire seems like it may have some traction as a tablet.  Further, I don’t think it is a stretch to see an acquisition or creation by Amazon of a phone making company, a social service, or create its own operating system.

So the next thing is where it goes from here.  I think customers are forced to choose a company, and you buy every product that that company offers.  For me, Apple has already done that to me.  There isn’t one product they make since the iPod that I don’t own, and use regularly.  I think all of the companies are moving toward this all-inclusive architecture approach, and the divide between them will be more pronounced than it was 10 years ago.

So now the losers.  Research in Motion is already out, so we will just assume they go away, but they might be ripe for a merger or acquisition by Amazon.  PC makers will lose: Dell, and HP specifically.  Along with them, so will Microsoft, though they have the most potential to use their huge market capital to turn things on it head.  Samsung is doing great in the phone market, but it will need to have other offerings in order to compete with the big three.

So what do you think?  Will there be the big three and everyone else falls by the way side?  Do you buy into the all-encompassing architecture notion?  Or will everything become so interdependent that it won’t matter at all which device or OS you have, they will all work together?  It will be an interesting ride regardless.  Post your comments below.

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The Kindle Fire is ready to deliver all your media, straight to your couch

The Kindle Fire (shipping yesterday, with over 1M pre-orders) has been indicted as a device that will further fracture the Android Ecosystem. It has an Android 2.3 (Gingerbread) soul, but is completely skinned over in all Amazon garb. The dual-core, 7″ tablet has quite a few capabilities that stand out, but it is clear that the intent is to boost user buy-in into the Amazon ecosystem.

Amazon now offers streaming video, book rentals, music storage/purchase and the ability to buy anything in the world. Additionally, their Prime membership allows you to stream for free, rent one book a month and offers free 2-day shipping on much of their online inventory. Amazon also offers their new Silk browser, which offloads some crunching to their cloud, and should speed up browsing for the user.

The Kindle Fire is focused on content consumption almost exclusively – with the majority of that content delivered by the Amazon Cloud. The delivery mechanisms are the Amazon storefront, and the Amazon Appstore. I’ve been using the Appstore since its inception, and while it’s not quite as easy as the Google Market, it is quite extensive, and about once or twice a week their free “App of the Day” is actually quite good.

With a free App every day, the Amazon Appstore can really deliver

But some analysts say that the Kindle Fire will hurt Android and ruin the ecosystem. I completely disagree with this statement. The pre-order success alone speaks that people are interested in Kindle, interested in tablets and interested in the price-point ($199). I think the Kindle Fire is evidence that more than just handset makers buy into Android, and they will continue to develop for the OS. While this device is coming out based on the 2.3 version of the OS, who is to say that there won’t be a future software update based on Android 4.0? If the evolution of the Nook Color (the device the Kindle Fire most resembles), updates will be coming down the pipeline, and non-authorized ROMs will be plentiful.

The Kindle Fire was created to directly compete with (and show up) the Nook Color. While it will not win the “spec” war, the amount of media that Amazon offers trumps anything Barnes & Noble (or anyone else) can offer. It is my belief that the more Kindle Fire’s and Nook Color’s that are produced, the stronger the Android ecosystem will grow. Consumer electronics makers will see that Android Tablets are viable in the market – they just have to be designed and implemented properly. I would expect to see a slew of forthcoming 7 + 10″ Android Tablets designed for the regular consumer – not just the computer geek!

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We are almost at Christmas, and a lot of people don’t know what to buy their loved ones this season.  Do not worry, we here at CTOvision have provided you with a list of items that will be certain to bring joy to your loved ones this holiday season.

Vizio makes quality HDTVs for decent prices.

1) New non-3D LCD/LED TV. New HDTVs have gotten extremely inexpensive.  32″ LCD TVs are down to about $300 dollars, super thin backlit LED TVs are about $600 for a 32″.  Because I don’t believe in 3DTV yet, nor that it is ready for the living room (lack of content, need for ridiculous glasses, I could go on forever), don’t worry about spending the extra for a “3D HDTV”.  Getting a good TV this holiday will be inexpensive and provide a quality present.  After you find your ideal HDTV, check out www.monoprice.com for HDMI cables, speaker/AV cables and mounts.

2) Apple iPad/Samsung Tablet. I’m on record as opposed to the Samsung tablet, and I think I will be for a long time.  But, the special person in your life (or you) may or may not be obsessed with Android and want the best out there (which for this year, sticks them with the Samsung Galaxy Tablet).  As obsessed with Android as I am, I still can’t justify pulling the trigger.  But if the person you are buying for is an iOS fan, the iPad shouldn’t be ignored.  Swirling rumors of iPad 2 are already starting to build, and I wouldn’t jump in until iPad 2 is out.  But, if you are in a tablet frenzy, there’s no better device than Apple’s iPad.  (Additionally, TJ Maxx was selling them for $100 off, so make sure to shop around a bit and see what prices may come).

The PS3 Move and Kinect are two hot sellers this year

3) XBOX 360 Kinect/PS3 Move. Motion gaming is here to stay…unfortunately.  But if  the gamer in your life has always wanted a Wii (without the Wii), Microsoft and Sony have both come out with some pretty cool options available this holiday season.   Microsoft’s Kinect uses infrared and cameras to track your motion, allowing the user to be the controller.  On the other hand, the PS3 Move is more like the Wii, with wand like controllers.  As of yet a full slew of games and true reviews of games are not yet out, but it is fair to say that by the end of Q1 there will be plenty of titles for both systems that will take advantages of all these have to offer.

4) New Smartphone. With the release of their Galaxy line of phones, Samsung has ensured that there is a quality Android smartphone for each of the major characters.  The Captivate for AT&T, the Fascinate for Verizon, the Epic 4G for Sprint, and the Vibrant for T-Mobile.  I would recommend HTC‘s Evo 4G on Sprint or Motorola‘s Droid X for Verizon users over the Samsung offerings.  Of course, if Android isn’t your game, there is always the iPhone 4 (on AT&T).  However, we here at CTOvision recommend waiting if at all possible.  By Q3 2011, we expect to see 4G options shake out and provide consumers with a better idea of what the future will hold for their wireless carriers.  Sprint’s 4G is speedy, yet doesn’t have much coverage, AT&T/T-Mobile’s HDSPA+ networks also provide a large speed boost over earlier networks (and any other 3G network).  Lastly, Verizon’s LTE network is supposed to be start rolling out any day now, and we should have some idea of what it will be like in the near future.  But the bottom line is this, all the “4G” networks are HUGE speed improvements over 3G, but the viability will come down to coverage area in your neighborhood.

This will be the e-reader battle of the future.

5) E-Reader. The Amazon Kindle 3 is TERRIFIC, B&N‘s  Nook Color is pretty cool too.  After about 8 months using various e-readers, I have to say that I don’t think any LCD screen can really compare to e-ink.  These readers differ in large part because of the screen options, but also in connectivity and battery life.  The Kindle 3 can last up to a month, while the Nook Color only 8 hours.   Additionally, the Kindle 3 comes in 3G flavors, while the Nook is stuck with WiFi only.  Having to plug in another device on an almost daily basis does not appeal to me, which takes away from the Nook Color’s appeal (for me at least).   Kindle 3 is only $189.99 or $139.99 (3G v WiFi), while the Nook Color is $249.99 (WiFi only).  I can see the value of the Nook Color, it is a full fledged Android tablet; however, as a reader I think it is somewhat flawed.

So what are our CTOvision readers asking for this season? What are you going to get the people you care about?

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Acer wants to be the first to sell a Chrome OS Netbook

2010 will undoubtedly be a year of technology. In 2009, Twitter revolutionized the way we get news, it brought us closer to those who were a part of the news, almost making traditional media irrelevant. I don’t know who (or what) will be the Twitter of 2010, but below are a few predictions for the coming year.

Google’s Chrome Netbook OS will be a hit. Their OS will mostly be dependent on a Google Account. A Google Account opens up their full Google Apps suite, which includes email, calendar, word processing, and MS Office like functions. Google’s renditions of their current OS have been well received by the “blogosphere” especially it’s ability to fit on a 1GB flash drive. An OS that small is perfect for Netbooks and tablet PCs. The smaller footprint also gives the user more capabilities. A key part of the Chrome OS will be the Chrome brower (my browser of choice) and one that is noted for its speed and security. Google rarely has missteps and I don’t foresee that Chrome OS will be one of them.

Notion Ink's Adam Tablet is sleek, and has an incredible Pixel Qi screen

Tablet PCs will dethrone the Kindle and the Nook – Recently, Barnes and Noble stated that they expected to ship 60k Nook handsets this year. Amazon stated that the Kindle was the largest gift ever sold this holiday season. Both devices are great at one thing – reading e-books. But who will be satisfied with a $250 E-reader, when a full fledged tablet PC can be had for $300? Many tablets on their way are going to be “subsidized” devices with 3G services. They will be capable of reading B&N e-books, Amazon e-books, and .pdf/.txt/.doc documents. Tablet PCs can offer the reading package side by side with Web-browsing, video and music playback, and video output to HDTVs/Monitors, or even use it as a full fledge PC when docked.

The DROID could be as good as it gets in 2010

There will be no great Smartphone leaps in 2010 – Smartphones (iPhone/BlackBerry/Android/Windows Mobile devices) are in a bit of a rut. As telecom providers are rushing to roll out 4G/LTE (long term evolution) networks, there is not too much a cellular phone can do in the future that it cannot now. In my mind, the most limiting factor for mobile phones is bandwidth. Already they can be hacked to provide Wireless Access Points, use Google Voice, and be tethered to provide your computer w/ access. We already have Multi-Touch, OLED, 5MP, and other capabilities. Improved touchscreen interactions, standardizing tethering and VoIP will all be nice, but these are merely hacks, not innovations.

USB 2.0 Left, 3.0 Right

USB 3.0 will not revolutionize anything (at least in 2010) – USB 3.0 is a great improvement. Offering transmission speeds of up to 480Mbps, it is certainly faster than USB 3.0, but until it is actually adopted, it is a useless advancement. USB 3.0 can be a revolution for displays, hi-fi audio, external hard drives, and hardwired network transmissions. All of these require a high amount of bandwidth. There is talk of USB 3.0 becoming the standard for every digital connection – but until it is adopted it is merely just another “Betamax.” The most expensive motherboards commercially available now do not have USB 3.0 ports, and until they ship in every PC and every peripheral, USB 3.0 will not find acceptance and relevance.

Location information (and location based services) will be extremely important in 2010 – Cell tower triangulation, GPS, and RFID (not to mention credit card records) are creating an inordinate amount of information pertaining to people’s habits, their routes, and who is purchasing what, where. Recently it has come to light that Sprint has shared over 8 M records with authorities – the amount of digital information on every person is growing daily, and privacy vs law enforcement, military, and anti-terror issues will rise to the surface of public opinion, and quickly. Whether Sprint is right or wrong to release that information depends on whomever you ask – I’m sure the criminals in jail would disagree with it, yet I bet district attorneys and law enforcement officials enjoyed it (for more on the Sprint issue here).  Check out SenseNetworks here for info on a locational data market leader.

Google's Android is powering this season's hottest cellphone: the Motorola DROID

2010, open source will have an impact on the consumer – Sun Microsystems’ OpenOffice.org project is an incredibly powerful desktop tool. It has become part of the suite of apps that I personally install on every machine I use. Why would I spend $100+ on bloated software (I’m looking at you Office 2007) when Sun offers the same capabilities in a 300MB download? In my opinion, this software is fully functional, and I suggest it to anyone I know in need of a desktop publishing solution. In addition, Google’s Android OS, an open source mobile phone (and PMP) operating system is going to touch a large number of consumers, and be an OS of choice for many tech manufacturers. Open source Linux servers have been supporting consumers for years, but in 2010 I foresee OpenOffice.org and Android reaching out and touching the consumer (and them knowing it).

Do you really want to wear these everytime you watch TV?

3D HDTV/3D in the house will not take off – Do you really want to wear glasses every time you decide watch TV or a new movie? I know I don’t, and I don’t think the majority of America does either. In my mind 3D has always been a gimmick – something for amusement park rides – not a really tenable technology. The advent of HD footage has gotten people used to clear, pristine images, 3D is neither of these. After recently watching Avatar in Digital 3D, after 2 hours and 40 minutes all I had was a headache, a desire for a refund, and no clue as to why anyone would film anything in 3D. In my mind, I don’t think this technology is ready for full scale adoption, I’ll probably avoid 3D until we have holographic projectors (maybe by the end of 2020!)

So what do you guys think of my predictions? Do you have any of your own? Please comment on mine, and leave your own!

Thanks!

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