The plethora of “shutdown” stories is sometimes overwhelming. Since my peer group is mostly DoD workers, the impact has been pervasive. Those hardest hit seem to be the Industry workers who found themselves in suddenly unfunded support functions. Over the past ten years, DoD has increasingly turned to Industry to fill critical government functions under “service” contracts, especially in program management, IT engineering and technical support roles. GAO has been criticizing this growing dependency since 2008. These folks are the first ones to go home without a paycheck in a shutdown and the last ones to be brought back on-board.
One of the unintended consequences of this period of uncertainty is a complete lack of forecasting on future DoD requirements. Considered a “nonessential” function, this much-needed Government-Industry communication drives how Industry prepares their support teams. When that talented Industry service support worker finds himself out of work, the Company has no sense of what future roles he might be able to play. Without forecasting to Industry, all their preparations are in the blind and are “at risk” to the Company.
The Shutdown exacerbated the forecasting shortfall, but didn’t create it. 2013 has been a consistently quiet year. Naturally, DoD is adjusting to sequester and will continue to adjust and readjust their requirements in response to funding cuts. DoD organizations are loath to commit to any future expenses until it sorts out. The problem is… it’s not sorting out. And DoD clearly has some operational, mission essential requirements that will need to be filled. And Industry must be made aware so that they can prepare.
Last year, DISA’s Forecast to Industry took two days and detailed fifty-six upcoming opportunities in seven separate presentations. These included estimated RFP dates and timing for awards. This year the forecast was completed in less than a day and was more general in nature, discussing trends and objectives with only skeletal information on the 42 opportunities identified.
Common forecasting tools are now showing gaps as public announcement was suspended during the shutdown. Many events that featured Industry Days were cancelled or postponed and will continue to be impacted because of DoD’s inability to support conferences. Direct queries to DoD customers yield few answers.
The end result is a Defense Industrial Base struggling to keep their talent employed in the face of deafening silence from their customers. Now is the time for open communication as requirements are adjusted. We all have a sense of what’s coming, but some actual details will help ensure Industry is prepared to meet future DoD requirements.
Related Posts:
Recorded Future for Forecasting Cyber Attacks
Thoughts on the Government Shutdown: from a technologist perspective
